A Public Opinion Strategies poll done for the NRCC has Paul Hodes only up 43%-39% over right wing Republican talk radio host in NH-02. Now if you adjust this for partisan bias, you get a 47%-35% lead for Hodes, but that still is not overly comforting in this blue district that John Kerry won by six points in 2004 and will need to go for Barack Obama for the same margin if he is going to eke out a win in the state.
Having to defend Shea-Porter in NH-01 is annoying enough, but having to worry about both seats in this blue trending state is a real pain in the ass. I cant imagine this state wanting to give control of their whole delegation back to the Republicans. Watch for other polls in this race. If Hodes’ lead is this small in public polls, then we can worry.
It’s garbage.
Even if the race is that close, the NRCC won’t drop any serious money here because they know they can’t keep up with what the DCCC would put down. The GOP will spend most of their money trying to defend what they can, and go on the offense only in a few key districts, and there are no indications (that I’ve seen) that they plan on contesting this one.
Could it be that New Hampshire is swinging back to the GOP?
In 2006 the Iraq war drove the Democratic sweep in the state. Obama is trailing in NH, and remember New Hampshire is still an anti-tax state.